Premier League predictions: Jones Knows thinks City will win the Manchester derby | Soccer News
Jones Knows is back with the Premier League predictions for Sunday’s…
Manchester City vs Manchester United, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Manchester United are tough and tumbling now and hard to score against. Will that be enough to stop Erling Haaland? Maybe.
Match prices look about right to me, with City favorites at 1/3 with Sky Bet. There’s no interest on my part in this, but a new special market offered by Sky Bet around player fouls has gotten my kicks excited.
Since the 4-0 thrashing at Brentford, no team has averaged more fouls per 90 minutes than Manchester United (13.5) as Erik ten Hag has, for now, resorted to a thrill-free style, quite direct with the backdrop of face-to-face aggression and defense. It’s probably smart management because something must have changed in style.
United will have to ruffle the feathers of City players to have a chance in this one and if Jack Grealish is selected on the left, then United right-back Diogo Dalot’s foul tally is worth it with Sky Bet. Grealish is still actively looking for fouls – not as much as his days at Aston Villa, but his average of 2.62 fouls won per 90 minutes in a City shirt is still a healthy figure. Dalot has committed at least two fouls in four of his last five Premier League starts for United and will want to stop Grealish at every opportunity. He is 8/11 with Sky Bet for making two or more fouls in the game and 9/4 for making three or more. Both are overpriced.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Leeds vs Aston Villa, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY THE SUPER 6 HERE!
Winning an away home football game in the Premier League if you are outside the ‘big six’ takes a lot of effort. It is a great success. Yes, the sample size is small, but away teams have only won 23% of their games this season, which is a big drop from the average away win percentage in UEFA. around 35% over the last five seasons.
Teams that typically win away wins are in a confident mood and are comfortable with the structure and tactics of their approach. That’s why I’m scratching my head at how short Aston Villa are to win at Leeds. Steven Gerrard’s side are 2/1 with Sky Bet to win despite winning just one in their last eight Premier League away games – a stinky run backed by some very worrying attacking metrics.
Only Bournemouth have a lower expected goal tally this season than Villa (6.07) as Gerrard has yet to find a formula that gets the most out of their attacking players. With Lucas Digne and Boubacar Kamara now also unavailable for selection through injury, Gerrard’s hand is further weakened this weekend. I’d be amazed if they left Elland Road with three points and at 4/11 with Sky Bet, Leeds to win or draw, this game is a winner at odds pending if tackling short prizes is your thing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Leicester vs Nottingham Forest, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Leicester have already scored 22 goals this season. It is an exploit.
It is the most conceded by a club in their first seven games of any Premier League season. In fact, you have to go back 57 years to the last time a Premier League side conceded 22 goals in their first seven games (West Ham 65-66 – and they still managed to win the Premier League world that season?).
Still, according to defensive performance data, Nottingham Forest somehow underperforms the Foxes at the back, as their expected goals against a total of 12.97 are the worst in the Premier League.
So against such an elusive defence, James Maddison should be at the forefront of minds for this encounter. Maddison has scored 11 goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances since May 11 – only Harry Kane, Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne have produced more. Of those 11 appearances, seven have been goals, identifying it as Leicester’s most dangerous attacking weapon.
The markets have yet to fully grasp this fact and are allowing it to go bigger than one would expect. Here you can get 6/1 with Sky Bet on him scoring the first goal or 15/8 on him scoring anytime.